The recent announcement made by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to release nearly four thousand prisoners excited Burmese citizens and scholars abroad. There are two questions that come to mind: Is this a real first step for democratic change? Or is it the move to make a temporary release to ease international pressure, while consolidating political power within the ruling elite?

Real Intention for Change

If the SPDC has real intention for change, the generals need to release all political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi. We have to wait and see within ten to twenty days who will be released. We need to give them time to release all political prisoners before the end of 2004.

Releasing all political prisoners is the first positive step of proof that there will be real change in the near future followed by the liberalization of political parties and news media.

After people have freedom of expression and organization, the next step will be dialogue between the opposition parties and the regime with the intention to build trust among different groups to find a common ground and solve the country's political problems by peaceful means.

If the above steps occur within a couple of months, Burma's political direction is going to be good.

Another possible option

Another possible option is that General Than Shwe follows a similar decision made by General Ne Win in 1980. After Ne Win consolidated his power, he released all political prisoners by issuing general amnesty law 2/80.

In Burma the three strongest politically active groups are the soldiers, the students and the monks. The students are known as “Kyaung Tha” sons of school, the monks are known as “Phaya Tha” sons of God (Buddha), and the soldiers are known as “Sit Tha” sons of war. Since 1962 students have been suppressed and tightly controlled but the Ne Win government has not succeeded to control the monk sector. The soldiers are under his command, the only thing he needed to do at the time was control the monk sector.

Before 1980, monks were free from investigation while traveling within the country. They did not need ID cards. They did not need to inform the local authorities to visit any place inside the country. Also people who wanted to enter the monk hood did not need to inform or win approval from the authorities. But in 1980, Ne Win's regime successfully pressured and persuaded all of the different Buddhist sects to accept a law which required all monks to carry ID cards issued by the government, and approved by their local monk authorities. All monks in the country had to register in every state and division where they stayed, and the law still applies today. This kind of restriction made by the Ne Win regime successful in controlling the movement of the monks.

Method of releasing prisoners

When Ne Win had no fear of his two strongest opponents, he confidently announced the amnesty law to release all political prisoners. First, the authorities singled out the prisoners who already served their jail terms and released them immediately. Second, they released prisoners who already served two thirds of their jail term. Third, they released prisoners who already served one third of their jail term. Those left behind were life term and death sentence prisoners who were considered not fit to be released, even though two thirds of their jail term had been reduced. It is significant to note that all of the prisoners were labeled as criminals, even though one third were political prisoners. Also, most of the political prisoners were released in the later batches late at night.

Political prisoners who already had life terms and death sentences were finally released after sixteen days of the official announcement. This is because at first the government refused to label them as political prisoners. Finally the government had to recognize them as political prisoners and release them in accordance with the amnesty order.

Resembling this previous move made by Ne Win's regime, Than Shwe is using a similar style. One crucial difference is that his announcement did not mention political prisoners, it only used the word “prisoners”. Ne Win's code 2/80 announcement was clearer than the current announcement.

After the 2/80 announcement many families belonging to political prisoners came to the Insein Prison gate and waited all day long. But their loved ones never came out. They saw many prisoners but not the political ones. They returned home with lowered heads and heavy hearts. The next day they came again and went home without greeting their sons and daughters. It was like a torture to all parents, wives, sons and daughters who father, son and husband were in prison. The jailors told the families that there were no political prisoners and all were criminals. Later however, political prisoners were released at night using prison trucks.

Recently, the regime released a mix of prisoners including prominent student leader Min Ko Naing.

What is the reason for releasing (political) prisoners?

The reason is Than Shwe's clique has the confidence to release political prisoners, thereby reducing international pressure and improving their image in prior to the coming ASEAN summit. Why do they have confidence? Because within the military clique the rival Khin Nyunt's group has been eliminated once and for all. There is no longer a rival within the top brass. Than Shwe has to concentrate on international affairs and show the world that they are making some progress. But only making a superficial change will not convince the world. Within a short period of time, their true strategy will be exposed. The UN has been fooled so many times by the regime and the SPDC is running out of tactics. They cannot fool the world forever, it is time for them to be punished if they still refuse to respect the people's will. We all will wait and see which course they will choose. Good or bad it is for them to decide.