The overall view about Burma current situation

Burma's withdrawal from ASEAN's chairmanship in 2006 means the generals will not change their radical stand and will oppress its opposition more. The Burmese opposition needs to be aware of this situation and prepare for it.

The Burmese generals do not care about the ASEAN chairmanship, the one and only thing they care about is holding political power by any means. When they had a choice between taking power or the ASEAN's Chairmanship, they chose the first one. Than Shwe will never step down from his position until he feels a real threat or some forces kick him out from his current position.

Than Shwe thought if he made the same “old trick”, he would chair the ASEAN group in 2006. He released hundreds of political prisoners and hoped that the international communities would see this action as a positive step and allowed him to get the chairmanship but it did not work out this time.

The view from inside Burma

Burmese observers from inside Burma view the withdrawal of the Chairmanship from ASEAN as a sign of uncompromising with the opposition. Some said if Burma was accepted there would be more pressure on the regime and within the ASEAN meeting in Rangoon. The regime could not stop some activities there. A lot of journalists would flock into Rangoon and people would have a chance to meet them. It might be a good opportunity for the activists to spread the news to the world about what is going on Burma, but this dream has gone.

They said the regime really planned this plot to avoid the chairmanship. First, the regime planted the bombs in three places and blew them up. A lot of civilians died in the blast but no one from the ruling class. Then they proved that Burma is not safe to sponsor an ASEAN meeting.

Than Shwe does not care about the Chairmanship or ASEAN membership. The only thing he cares about is to keep his political power at whatever cost. If necessary, he will not hesitate to abandon the ASEAN membership and to follow the steps of the late General Ne Win: isolationism.

Than Shwe knows that he can use the China card to balance Western pressure and count on Chinese products to counter sanctions. Also India is willing to support the Burmese regime because of China. The gas line from Burma –Bangladesh to India and Ye gas pipeline with Thailand will get millions for the regime to survive. In short, the regime will go back to isolation and the generals thought that they will survive for decades like in the past.

But the Burmese people will not stay in the cage as they wish. They will rise up again and demand freedom, whatever the cost. No one can stop the desire of the Burmese people who are dying for Freedom.

If the Generals want a real national reconciliation, the first step for them is to release all political prisoners without twist and turn. There is no doubt that sanction hurts the regime and people but sanction is used as a pressure tool. It is a necessary policy to stick onto until there are significant democratic changes.

The movement and the suppressor

The movement inside has stalled because NLD party top leaders Aung San Suu Kyi, U Tin Oo and U Win Tun have been detained and NLD party has faced many restrictions against continuing their activities. Now some activists inside Burma are blaming Aung San Suu Kyi and her party for not achieving its goals for democracy.

Indeed, 15 years has passed NLD is still struggling not only to achieve its goals, but for its survival. Who has to blame NLD or SPDC?. Some chose NLD and some chose SPDC. People who chose to blame NLD favored to lift sanction and stop blaming the SPDC. They thought that the generals will show some flexibility because of their soft stand. But even though they pick NLD as a scape-goat, they have no alternative plan. More importantly they cannot guarantee SPDC will change.

On the other hand, people who chose to blame SPDC favored sanction, they thought regime will never hand over political power and sanction is the weapon to weaken the regime. They know that sanction is not the ultimate weapon to topple down the regime but it will definitely weaken the regime. It is not morally right if we blamed the NLD party for not reaching its goals because the party's offices were forced to shut down and its leaders have been detained. How will NLD achieve the goals for democracy?

The news spread around in Burma that SPDC will resume its stalled, so called, National Convention in coming December and SPDC will invite 1988 student's leaders as a group of 88 generation group not as students because they are no longer students because of their age and generation gap.

88 generation leaders had been suffered enough in prison for more than fifteen years and most of them were finally released but some are still in prison. The reason of their released was now taking shape. SPDC has a plan to counter the lack of opposition party in the convention by substitution of the famous 88 generation. If the 88 generation attended the conference, they will undermine the NLD and persuade the other pro democracy elements who have connection with the 88 leaders.

88 Generation needs to consider the outcome and carefully negotiate with the regime. They need to make some suggestion for this offer.

• Allow them as a participants in the convention not as observers
• Allow the NLD and other banned political parties to attend
• Allow all the participants to discuss subjects freely

If these three conditions are met, it is time for them to join with the NLD in the convention... The 88 generation needs to stick each other, other wise 88 generation will be used as a tool to legitimize the regime and split the movement.

As the same token, the regime is using Wa ethnic group to counter its Shans brothers. Wa and Shans have lived together for more than hundred years. Now Was are used as a tool to fight against the Shans not the Burmese army. Both sides suffered enough and some day the regime will turn into Was when they strengthen its base in central Burma after they eliminate NLD leaders and its movement.

Burmese ethnic minorities need to consider seriously how to counter the divide and rule policy operating by the Burmese regime? The regime will not give them what they are fighting for. There is only one thing they will get "the orders" not "federal" or "autonomy". The regime will push to get what they want. They will push for unitary state not a federal one. It is time for the ethnic brothers and sisters to unite with the opposition and demand their rights, not to fight each other.